── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pavel Kotov 67% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pavel Kotov
Elias Ymer
67%33%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pavel Kotov
38th · below avg
Elias Ymer
5th · poor
Return
Pavel Kotov
6th · poor
Elias Ymer
7th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#140
model rank
#182
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
SWE
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pavel Kotov■ Elias Ymer
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Road to the Rolex Shanghai Masters CH | Hard | R32 | Pavel Kotov | 3-6 6-3 7-6(9) |
| 2022-05-09 | Bordeaux CH | Clay | QF | Pavel Kotov | 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2021-10-18 | Moscow | Hard | Q1 | Elias Ymer | 6-2 6-3 |