── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pavel Kotov 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pavel Kotov
Shintaro Mochizuki
58%42%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 59% / 41%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pavel Kotov
38th · below avg
Shintaro Mochizuki
0th · poor
Return
Pavel Kotov
6th · poor
Shintaro Mochizuki
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#140
model rank
#167
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
JPN
191cm
height
175cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pavel Kotov■ Shintaro Mochizuki
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | Q2 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2026-09-14 | Guangzhou Huangpu International Tennis Open CH | Hard | R32 | Pavel Kotov | 7-6(4) 6-1 |