── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Hugo Gaston
Alexei Popyrin
45%55%
Hard: 52% / 48%
Clay: 32% / 68%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Hugo Gaston
9th · poor
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Return
Hugo Gaston
61th · average
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#111
model rank
#90
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
FRA
country
AUS
173cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Hugo Gaston■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Grass1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Quebec City CH | Hard | R16 | Hugo Gaston | 5-2 RET |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Hugo Gaston | 6-2 4-6 0-6 7-6(3) 6-3 |