── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Valentin Vacherot
Alex De Minaur
34%66%
Hard: 33% / 67%
Clay: 27% / 73%
Grass: 4% / 96%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Valentin Vacherot
86th · strong
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Valentin Vacherot
56th · average
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#29
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
MON
country
AUS
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Valentin Vacherot■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Valentin Vacherot | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |