── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Valentin Vacherot
Holger Rune
44%56%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 23% / 77%
Grass: 11% / 89%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Valentin Vacherot
86th · strong
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Valentin Vacherot
56th · average
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#29
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
MON
country
DEN
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Valentin Vacherot■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | QF | Valentin Vacherot | 2-6 7-6(4) 6-4 |