── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Marin Cilic a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Marin Cilic
49%51%
Hard: 36% / 64%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 11% / 89%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Marin Cilic
81th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Marin Cilic
47th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#70
Clay
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
CRO
196cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–3
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Marin Cilic | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Dubai | Hard | R16 | Marin Cilic | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Marin Cilic | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2021-02-22 | Singapore | Hard | SF | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(5) 7-6(2) |