── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Yoshihito Nishioka
63%37%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 69% / 31%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Yoshihito Nishioka
20th · below avg
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Yoshihito Nishioka
57th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#128
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
AUS
country
JPN
196cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Yoshihito Nishioka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R128 | Alexei Popyrin | 7-5 6-4 1-2 RET |
| 2023-01-02 | Adelaide 1 | Hard | QF | Yoshihito Nishioka | 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 6-2 |