── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Daniil Medvedev
18%82%
Hard: 10% / 90%
Clay: 32% / 68%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#5
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
RUS
196cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
Clay0–1
Grass0–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 5-7 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 2-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-4 |
| 2020-01-20 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2019-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4 6-4 |