── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexander Bublik 70% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Alexander Bublik
30%70%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 44% / 56%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#24
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
KAZ
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2024-02-19 | Doha | Hard | QF | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-02-22 | Singapore | Hard | F | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 6-0 6-2 |
| 2018-07-16 | Astana CH | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |