── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin a slight 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Reilly Opelka
56%44%
Hard: 40% / 60%
Clay: 73% / 27%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Reilly Opelka
96th · elite
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#100
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
196cm
height
211cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Reilly Opelka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Adelaide | Hard | R32 | Reilly Opelka | 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-2 |