── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Tommy Paul
25%75%
Hard: 21% / 79%
Clay: 30% / 70%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#14
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Grass0–1
Hard1–2
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Tommy Paul | 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-06-10 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Tommy Paul | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-11-01 | Paris Masters | Hard | Q2 | Tommy Paul | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-02-01 | Murray River Open | Hard | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2019-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | Q1 | Tommy Paul | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |