── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Frances Tiafoe
34%66%
Hard: 26% / 74%
Clay: 45% / 55%
Grass: 34% / 66%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#31
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
196cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard0–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-4 7-6(6) |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 7-6(3) 2-6 6-3 |