── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Berrettini 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Matteo Berrettini
35%65%
Hard: 35% / 65%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 8% / 92%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Return
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Matteo Berrettini
39th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#90
model rank
#37
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–3
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alexei Popyrin | 7-5 7-6(2) |
| 2021-10-25 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2019-08-26 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(2) |