── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Casper Ruud
26%74%
Hard: 34% / 66%
Clay: 19% / 81%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#90
model rank
#23
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
NOR
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |