── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Casper Ruud
22%78%
Hard: 29% / 71%
Clay: 17% / 83%
Grass: 59% / 41%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#11
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
NOR
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |