── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Sebastian Korda
23%77%
Hard: 20% / 80%
Clay: 53% / 47%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#90
model rank
#14
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Sebastian Korda
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | SF | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(0) 6-3 |
| 2023-09-25 | Astana | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-4 |
| 2020-11-02 | Eckental CH | Hard | QF | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 6-4 |