── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Jannik Sinner
3%97%
Hard: 2% / 98%
Clay: 8% / 92%
Grass: 5% / 95%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#1
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
196cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Jannik Sinner
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard0–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(5) 6-2 |