── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alexei Popyrin 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Holger Rune
59%41%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 26% / 74%
Grass: 26% / 74%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
73th · strong
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Alexei Popyrin
25th · below avg
Holger Rune
77th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#90
model rank
#127
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
DEN
196cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 5-7 6-4 |