── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Michelsen 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alexei Popyrin
Alex Michelsen
41%59%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 68% / 32%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Alex Michelsen
59th · average
Return
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Alex Michelsen
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#75
model rank
#47
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
196cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alexei Popyrin■ Alex Michelsen
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Houston | Clay | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-0 4-6 6-1 |