── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Tommy Paul
51%49%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 27% / 73%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Tommy Paul
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Grass1–1
Clay1–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | F | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | SF | Tommy Paul | 6-4 7-6(2) |
| 2024-06-10 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | QF | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Tommy Paul | 6-0 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-09-27 | San Diego | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 5-7 6-1 |
| 2021-05-24 | Parma | Clay | SF | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-01-04 | Delray Beach | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 4-6 6-3 6-2 |