── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Frances Tiafoe
60%40%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 63% / 37%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
196cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–2
Clay0–2
Grass1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 7-6(6) 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Washington | Hard | SF | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-06-19 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 4-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2022-04-25 | Estoril | Clay | SF | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2021-10-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-0 6-4 |
| 2018-02-12 | New York | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |