── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Lorenzo Sonego
78%22%
Hard: 76% / 24%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
71th · strong
Return
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Lorenzo Sonego
29th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#99
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
196cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
Clay1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-01-08 | Adelaide | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 7-6(10) |
| 2022-09-19 | Metz | Hard | QF | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-09-27 | San Diego | Hard | R16 | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-05-24 | Parma | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2021-02-22 | Montpellier | Hard | R16 | Lorenzo Sonego | 6-3 6-2 |