── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Casper Ruud
54%46%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 17% / 83%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#14
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
NOR
196cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | QF | Sebastian Korda | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | W/O |