── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Korda 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Alexei Popyrin
75%25%
Hard: 81% / 19%
Clay: 47% / 53%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#75
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
AUS
196cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | SF | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(0) 6-3 |
| 2023-09-25 | Astana | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Korda | 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-4 |
| 2020-11-02 | Eckental CH | Hard | QF | Sebastian Korda | 6-4 6-4 |