── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Sebastian Korda 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Sebastian Korda
Sho Shimabukuro
87%13%
Hard: 89% / 11%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 67% / 33%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · strong
Sho Shimabukuro
15th · poor
Return
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Sho Shimabukuro
30th · below avg

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#14
model rank
#155
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
196cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

■ Sebastian Korda■ Sho Shimabukuro
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard1–0
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-09-24TokyoHardR16Sebastian Korda6-1 6-4