── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Sebastian Korda 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Sebastian Korda
Sho Shimabukuro
85%15%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 69% / 31%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Sho Shimabukuro
18th · poor
Return
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Sho Shimabukuro
21th · below avg

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#16
model rank
#140
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
JPN
196cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Sebastian KordaSho Shimabukuro
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-09-24TokyoHardR16Sebastian Korda6-1 6-4