── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Lorenzo Musetti a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Korda
Lorenzo Musetti
48%52%
Hard: 52% / 48%
Clay: 20% / 80%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#16
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ITA
196cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Korda■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay0–2
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Hard | SF | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-0 5-7 7-5 |
| 2022-09-19 | Metz | Hard | R16 | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2021-11-08 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Sebastian Korda | 4-2 4-3(4) 4-2 |
| 2021-05-17 | Lyon | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-3 1-6 6-4 |