── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sho Shimabukuro a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sho Shimabukuro
Alex Bolt
52%48%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 72% / 28%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sho Shimabukuro
18th · poor
Alex Bolt
35th · below avg
Return
Sho Shimabukuro
21th · below avg
Alex Bolt
8th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#140
model rank
#145
Hard
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Left
JPN
country
AUS
180cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sho Shimabukuro■ Alex Bolt
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | Q1 | Sho Shimabukuro | 6-2 6-7(3) 6-3 |
| 2025-04-28 | Guangzhou CH | Hard | R32 | Sho Shimabukuro | 3-6 6-4 6-1 |
| 2023-05-15 | Tunis CH | Clay | Q1 | Sho Shimabukuro | 6-3 6-1 |