── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Mariano Navone 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Sho Shimabukuro
Mariano Navone
22%78%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 6% / 94%
Grass: 83% / 17%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Sho Shimabukuro
18th · poor
Mariano Navone
28th · below avg
Return
Sho Shimabukuro
21th · below avg
Mariano Navone
97th · elite

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#140
model rank
#32
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
JPN
country
ARG
180cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Sho ShimabukuroMariano Navone
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-09-24TokyoHardQ1Sho Shimabukuro6-2 6-3