── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Francisco Cerundolo
Alex De Minaur
41%59%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 50% / 50%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Francisco Cerundolo
61th · average
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Francisco Cerundolo
96th · elite
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#24
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Francisco Cerundolo■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Hamburg | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Francisco Cerundolo | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 5-7 7-6(3) 6-3 6-3 |