── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Francisco Cerundolo
Carlos Alcaraz
12%88%
Hard: 14% / 86%
Clay: 16% / 84%
Grass: 2% / 98%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Francisco Cerundolo
64th · average
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Francisco Cerundolo
97th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#2
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Francisco Cerundolo■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–2
Clay1–1
Grass0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3-6 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2019-01-21 | M15 Palmanova | Clay | SF | Francisco Cerundolo | 6-2 6-4 |