── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Francisco Cerundolo 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Francisco Cerundolo
Matteo Arnaldi
66%34%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 55% / 45%
Grass: 56% / 44%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Francisco Cerundolo
64th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Francisco Cerundolo
97th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#54
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ITA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Francisco Cerundolo■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Francisco Cerundolo | 3-6 2-6 7-5 6-4 6-3 |