── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Stan Wawrinka
59%41%
Hard: 40% / 60%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Stan Wawrinka
69th · average
Return
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Stan Wawrinka
16th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#89
model rank
#129
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
SUI
170cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Stan Wawrinka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 7-5 |
| 2026-01-05 | United Cup | Hard | QF | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 6-4 |