── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
David Goffin
65%35%
Hard: 55% / 45%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
David Goffin
13th · poor
Return
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
David Goffin
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#77
model rank
#141
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
BEL
170cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ David Goffin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Grass0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R128 | Sebastian Baez | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | David Goffin | 6-1 6-2 6-4 |