── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Sebastian Baez 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Sebastian Baez
Roberto Carballes Baena
69%31%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 54% / 46%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Roberto Carballes Baena
22th · below avg
Return
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Roberto Carballes Baena
58th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#77
model rank
#147
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ESP
170cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Sebastian BaezRoberto Carballes Baena
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay30
── 3 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-05-12Valencia CHClayR32Sebastian Baez6-4 6-2
2024-05-20GenevaClayR16Sebastian Baez6-3 6-0
2023-07-31KitzbuhelClayR16Sebastian Baez6-1 6-2