── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Marcos Giron
55%45%
Hard: 45% / 55%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Marcos Giron
53th · average
Return
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Marcos Giron
57th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#89
model rank
#107
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
USA
170cm
height
180cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Marcos Giron
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | R128 | Sebastian Baez | 1-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Auckland | Hard | SF | Sebastian Baez | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Sebastian Baez | 6-4 5-7 7-6(6) |
| 2023-04-24 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Sebastian Baez | 3-6 6-3 6-4 |