── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Cristian Garin
55%45%
Hard: 67% / 33%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Cristian Garin
31th · below avg
Return
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Cristian Garin
72th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#77
model rank
#99
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
CHI
170cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Cristian Garin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay3–0
Hard0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Santiago | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Baez | 7-6(2) 1-6 7-5 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Cristian Garin | 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2023-02-27 | Santiago | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Baez | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-01-31 | Cordoba | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Baez | 4-6 6-1 6-1 |