── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
51%49%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 46% / 54%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
24th · below avg
Return
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#77
model rank
#82
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ARG
170cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Camilo Ugo Carabelli
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay7–2
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Buenos Aires | Clay | QF | Sebastian Baez | 7-6(5) 6-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Hamburg | Clay | R32 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-3 2-6 6-4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Santiago | Clay | SF | Sebastian Baez | 6-1 3-6 6-2 |
| 2025-02-17 | Rio de Janeiro | Clay | SF | Sebastian Baez | 3-6 6-1 6-1 |
| 2025-02-10 | Buenos Aires | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021-03-15 | Santiago CH | Clay | QF | Sebastian Baez | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2020-09-21 | M25 Jablonec Nad Nisou | Clay | QF | Sebastian Baez | 6-1 6-7(2) 6-3 |
| 2016-10-31 | Argentina F12 | Clay | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 3-6 6-3 6-3 |
| 2016-05-23 | Argentina F8 | Clay | R32 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-3 6-1 |