── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Sebastian Baez a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Gabriel Diallo
51%49%
Hard: 43% / 57%
Clay: 68% / 32%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Gabriel Diallo
66th · average
Return
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Gabriel Diallo
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#89
model rank
#94
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
CAN
170cm
height
203cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Gabriel Diallo
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Gabriel Diallo | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bucharest | Clay | R16 | Sebastian Baez | 7-6(5) 2-6 6-2 |