── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Ben Shelton
27%73%
Hard: 18% / 82%
Clay: 44% / 56%
Grass: 11% / 89%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Ben Shelton
98th · elite
Return
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Ben Shelton
20th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#77
model rank
#18
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ARG
country
USA
170cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Ben Shelton
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Auckland | Hard | QF | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2023-01-09 | Auckland | Hard | R32 | Ben Shelton | 7-6(1) 6-1 |