── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 76% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Novak Djokovic
76%24%
Hard: 75% / 25%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#3
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
SRB
191cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Novak Djokovic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–2
Grass1–2
Clay1–1
── 11 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | SF | Novak Djokovic | 3-6 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 7-5 7-6(3) |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3 |
| 2023-11-25 | Davis Cup Finals SF: ITA vs SRB | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 2-6 7-5 |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-7(5) 7-6(2) |
| 2023-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | F | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | SF | Novak Djokovic | 6-3 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Novak Djokovic | 5-7 2-6 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Novak Djokovic | 6-4 6-2 |