── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 93% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Alexander Bublik
93%7%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 90% / 10%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#24
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
KAZ
191cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
Grass1–2
Clay1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-1 6-1 |
| 2025-06-16 | Halle | Grass | R16 | Alexander Bublik | 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 7-5 6-0 |
| 2023-06-19 | Halle | Grass | QF | Alexander Bublik | 7-5 2-0 RET |
| 2023-06-12 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-03-22 | Miami Masters | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2021-03-15 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 2-6 7-6(2) 6-4 |