── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Denis Shapovalov
97%3%
Hard: 94% / 6%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#66
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ITA
country
CAN
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-02-08 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Denis Shapovalov | 3-6 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4 |