── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 93% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Casper Ruud
93%7%
Hard: 95% / 5%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 96% / 4%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#11
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
NOR
191cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
Hard3–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2021-10-25 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2020-10-26 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(2) 6-3 |