── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Felix Auger Aliassime
89%11%
Hard: 89% / 11%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#9
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
CAN
191cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Felix Auger Aliassime
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Hard4–1
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-0 6-2 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | W/O |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 2-6 7-6(1) 6-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-1 6-2 |