── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Alex De Minaur
88%12%
Hard: 88% / 12%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
191cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard12–1
Clay1–0
── 14 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 4-6 6-2 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 6-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Davis Cup Finals SF: ITA vs AUS | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-11-26 | Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITA | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-0 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | W/O |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4 |
| 2020-11-09 | Sofia | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-1 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 4-2 4-1 4-2 |