── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 97% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Alexei Popyrin
97%3%
Hard: 98% / 2%
Clay: 92% / 8%
Grass: 95% / 5%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#75
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
AUS
191cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–1
Hard2–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Alexei Popyrin | 7-6(5) 6-2 |