── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz
65%35%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 40% / 60%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
98th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
191cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–4
Hard3–7
Grass2–0
── 18 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | F | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | F | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4) 7-5 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 5-0 RET |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | F | Jannik Sinner | 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | F | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 2-6 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 1-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2023-09-27 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4) 6-1 |
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(4) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(4) 6-3 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-7(7) 6-7(0) 7-5 6-3 |
| 2022-07-25 | Umag | Clay | F | Jannik Sinner | 6-7(5) 6-1 6-1 |
| 2022-06-27 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-1 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3 |
| 2021-11-01 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(1) 7-5 |
| 2019-04-01 | Villena CH | Clay | R64 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |