── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 88% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Arthur Fils
88%12%
Hard: 89% / 11%
Clay: 74% / 26%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Arthur Fils
93th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
99th · elite
Arthur Fils
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#6
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
FRA
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Arthur Fils
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | SF | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2023-02-20 | Marseille | Hard | R16 | Arthur Fils | W/O |
| 2023-02-06 | Montpellier | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-5 6-2 |