── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 86% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Ben Shelton
86%14%
Hard: 85% / 15%
Clay: 91% / 9%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Ben Shelton
99th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
99th · elite
Ben Shelton
60th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ITA
country
USA
191cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Ben Shelton
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard7–1
Grass2–0
── 10 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | SF | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(2) 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-4 7-6(1) |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 6-2 6-4 7-6(9) |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(4) 6-1 |
| 2023-10-23 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(2) 7-5 |
| 2023-10-02 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Ben Shelton | 2-6 6-3 7-6(5) |