── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 90% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Jannik Sinner
Joao Fonseca
90%10%
Hard: 90% / 10%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#1
model rank
#10
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
BRA
191cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Jannik Sinner■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R16 | Jannik Sinner | 7-6(6) 7-6(4) |