── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Brandon Nakashima 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Brandon Nakashima
Marin Cilic
74%26%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 61% / 39%
Grass: 45% / 55%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Brandon Nakashima
91th · elite
Marin Cilic
76th · strong
Return
Brandon Nakashima
68th · average
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#17
model rank
#81
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
CRO
188cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Brandon Nakashima■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R64 | Marin Cilic | 2-6 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | R32 | Brandon Nakashima | 7-6(4) 7-6(5) |
| 2024-09-18 | Hangzhou | Hard | SF | Marin Cilic | 6-4 7-6(6) |